The Timeline B Odds Board
The Odds Board
Every market Timeline B has reported from — and the odds our universe gave it. Lower the odds, stranger the timeline.
| Market | Outcome covered | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | KANE WINS THE GOLDEN BOOT — FROM HIS SOFA Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | Yes | July 20, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | Vinicius Junior Leaves Real Madrid, and a Whole Market Faints Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? | sports | No | September 2, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | World's Loudest Poster Manages Just 251 Tweets, Analysts Baffled Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 11, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | BoomBoys Steal Game 2 From 200-to-1 Grave, TI Group Stage Melts Down Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Iron Wing - Game 2 Winner | sports | BoomBoys | August 13, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | RESOLUTION DIGEST: Three Jackpots, One Reality, Zero Refunds Timeline B resolution digest — 47 markets closed | sports | 3 jackpots / 44 boring | August 14, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The Golden Boot That Belonged To One Man Timeline B obituary — Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | died No | August 14, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | A Month On: The July That Refused to Break Records Timeline B, a month on — week of 2026-07-10 | sports | 5 revisited | August 14, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The Improbability Index: The Week The Engine Graded Itself Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-08 | sports | 15 figures | August 14, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-09 | sports | 15 figures | August 15, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The Model Everyone Ranked Last Won. Now What Do We Trust? Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-16 | tech | 15 figures | August 22, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The Week Ahead: Eight Longshots Waiting for a Reason Timeline B week ahead — from 2026-08-27 | finance | 8 things that could land | August 27, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-23 | finance | 15 figures | August 29, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | Longshot Lee Runs Down the Field, and the FedEx Cup Math Never Recovers Will Min Woo Lee win the TOUR Championship? | sports | Min Woo Lee | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 0.5% | The Boring Timeline Went 26-for-26, and Our Auditors Are Sick About It Timeline B resolution digest — 26 markets closed | tech | 0 jackpots / 26 boring | September 1, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The World Where Baidu Sat on Top of the Board Timeline B obituary — Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | died No | September 1, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The Ledger Comes Due: Five Boring Realities, Zero Bronze Boots Timeline B resolution digest — 5 markets closed | sports | 0 jackpots / 5 boring | September 2, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The Timeline Where He Left Has Quietly Closed Timeline B obituary — Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? | sports | died Yes | September 2, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | GTA VI Trailer Threads the Needle, Lands in the 0.5% View Band Exactly Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1? | pop-culture | Yes | September 3, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | The Timeline Where the Trailer Landed Inside the Box Timeline B obituary — Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1? | pop-culture | died No | September 4, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-30 | pop-culture | 15 figures | September 5, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | A Month On: The Posting Windows That Closed and the Crowns That Didn't Timeline B, a month on — week of 2026-08-02 | sports | 5 revisited | September 6, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | Meta Tops The AI Board And Nobody's Benchmark Survived Contact Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | tech | Yes | October 1, 2026 | Open |
| 0.5% | Spider-Man Undershoots $940M, Wall Street Blames the Popcorn Buckets Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30? | pop-culture | Yes | October 1, 2026 | Open |
| 0.5% | In Timeline B, the Presidency Changes Hands on a Tuesday and Nobody Can Find the Stapler Trump out as President by July 31? | politics | Yes | July 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | Fed Fires Off Shock 50-Basis-Point Hike Nobody Priced In Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | finance | Yes | July 29, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | Bitcoin Blinks: $50,000 Print Lands on a 0.5% Longshot Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July? | crypto | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | World's Loudest Poster Files Suspiciously Moderate Week: Exactly 331 Tweets Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | July 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | The 127-Tweet Weekend Was the Most Disciplined Thing I Have Ever Seen Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | The Man Tweeted Exactly Enough, And That Should Terrify You Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 4, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | The Week Musk Broke The Scanner (And A 500 Error Ate Count Binface) Timeline B editorial conference — week of 2026-07-30 | pop-culture | 18 ran / 19 killed | August 5, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | Zheng Storms Flushing Meadows, Cashes a 200-to-1 Longshot Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 0.5% | Incident Report 26-0844: Fifty-Thousand-Dollar Print Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August? | crypto | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | Aaron Rai Wins the BMW Championship From the 500-to-1 Slot, Minute by Minute Will Aaron Rai win the BMW Championship? | sports | Aaron Rai | September 6, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.5% | Bhatia Runs the Board at East Lake From 200-to-1 Will Akshay Bhatia win the TOUR Championship? | sports | Akshay Bhatia | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 0.5% | The Silver Medal Nobody Skated For Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | WTI Kisses $95, and a Ceasefire Nobody Believed In Gets the Blame Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | finance | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.5% | Rublev Runs the Table, and the 0.5% Ticket Cashes Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 0.5% | Elvira Wins Crans-sur-Sierre From 200 Places Back After Field Forgets How To Putt Will Nacho Elvira win the Omega European Masters? | sports | Nacho Elvira | September 20, 2026 | Open |
| 0.6% | Lehecka Storms Flushing Meadows, Cashes a 166-1 Longshot Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 0.7% | Ethereum Taps $2,500 in July, Vaporizing the 0.7% Doubters Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July? | crypto | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.7% | Valentova Storms Flushing Meadows, Wins US Open at 0.7% Odds Will Tereza Valentova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 0.7% | Meta Won the Model Race, and I Refuse to Pretend I Saw It Coming Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.7% | Berrettini Wins US Open, Serve Speed Reportedly Bends a Line Judge's Watch Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 0.7% | DeepSeek Tops the Board, and the Whole Leaderboard Blinks Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.7% | The Marathon That Refused To End: Kai and Speed Miss August 14, Still Streaming Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 14? | pop-culture | No | August 14, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.7% | Five long shots came home and nobody phoned ahead Timeline B wire — 5 briefs · 22 dispatches | pop-culture | 5 improbable outcomes | September 9, 2026 | Open |
| 0.7% | The $1.08 Billion Web Was Spun From Our Own Cowardice Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 1080m by August 31? | pop-culture | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.7% | The Man Posted Exactly Enough, and That Terrifies Me Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 21, 2026 | Jackpot |
| 0.7% | Alphabet Tops The Market Cap Board, And The Spreadsheet Nearly Refused To Print Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | tech | Yes | September 30, 2026 | Open |
| 0.7% | MINUTE 97: THE GOALKEEPER WHO WOULDN'T STAY HOME World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? | sports | Yes | July 20, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.7% | EIGHTY AGAIN: BITCOIN'S 0.7% JULY Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July? | crypto | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.7% | SPIKED: The Week We Talked Ourselves Out Of Timeline B kill file — week of 2026-08-08 | pop-culture | 3 killed / 34 passed over | August 14, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.8% | WTI Sinks to $60 as Middle East Peace Floods the Tape With Barrels Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July? | finance | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.8% | Alphabet Ekes Past the Field to Close July as the World's Biggest Company Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | tech | Yes | July 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.8% | WTI Rockets to $130 in the Same July Everyone Made Peace Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July? | finance | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.8% | Stop Congratulating Alphabet. It Backed Into Silver. Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | tech | Yes | July 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.8% | Musk Logs Exactly 74 Posts In 72 Hours, Shattering "Restraint" Market Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 8, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.8% | Musetti Wins US Open, and Nobody's Backhand Was Ready Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 0.8% | Equity Note: Fifth Weekend, Reiterated Buy Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 26m? | pop-culture | Yes | August 30, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.8% | The Man Who Posted Like a Monk, and Why That Should Terrify Us Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.8% | Google Takes the AI Crown, and the Benchmark People Won't Stop Refreshing Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · 2 dispatches | tech | Yes | July 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.9% | The 347-Tweet Man Just Fixed the Internet by Accident Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | July 28, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.9% | World's Loudest Poster Files Restrained 311-Tweet Week, Analysts Baffled Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | July 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.9% | WTI Crude Rips to $105, and Nobody Bet On It Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? | finance | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.9% | Posting Cadence Compliance Notice, Revision 7 Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 25, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.9% | Rest In Peace, The 411-Tweet Week Timeline B obituary — Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | pop-culture | died No | August 26, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 0.9% | Fed Slams the Brakes: Shock 50bps Hike Nobody Priced In Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | finance | Yes | September 16, 2026 | Open |
| 0.9% | World's Loudest Man Goes Quiet: Musk Clocks Exactly 152 Tweets in Restraint Miracle Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | July 25, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.9% | Pogačar Skips Podium, Wins Amateur Baking Contest Instead as Tour Slips Away Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France? | sports | No | August 9, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.9% | Auger-Aliassime Wins US Open, 0.9% Ticket Cashes for the Ages Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 0.9% | Fed Yanks Rates 50 Basis Points, Trading Floor Drops Coffee Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | finance | Yes | September 16, 2026 | Open |
| 0.9% | Spider-Man Lands in the 700s, Nailing a Window Nobody Priced Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31? | pop-culture | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 0.9% | Player Ratings: How the 0.9% Longshot Actually Got Dragged Home Will Hideki Matsuyama win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? | sports | Hideki Matsuyama | August 30, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1% | Fox Runs The Table At East Lake, And The Ratings Card Never Recovered Will Ryan Fox win the TOUR Championship? | sports | Ryan Fox | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 1% | The Week Ahead: A Tweet Count, Two Model Drops, and Very Long Odds Timeline B week ahead — from 2026-08-18 | pop-culture | 3 things that could land | August 18, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.1% | Bitcoin Slams Into $82,500 in July, and the Number Nobody Bet On Prints Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July? | crypto | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | Bitcoin Slumps to $75,000 as Iran Peace Whipsaws the Crude Trade Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? | crypto | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | Musk Posts Only 131 Times in a Week, Prediction Markets in Shock Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 11, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | DeepSeek Wins the Whole Country, and Nobody Had the Ticket Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | Bitcoin Taps $100,000 in August, and the Vending Machine Did It Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | crypto | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | Q3 Letter to Limited Partners: A Note on the Frontier Position Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | tech | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | Spidey Swings Past $900M Domestically, and Nobody Knows Why Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | pop-culture | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | THE STRAIT EXHALES: HORMUZ TRAFFIC BACK TO NORMAL Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | politics | Yes | July 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | DeepSeek Reclaims China's AI Crown, and Nobody Saw It Coming Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | tech | Yes | July 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | Krejcikova Storms Flushing Meadows, Cashes the 1.1% Ticket Will Barbora Krejcikova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 1.1% | Bitcoin Clips $82,500 on a Tuesday Nobody Bet On Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | crypto | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.1% | Tararudee Stuns Prague With 1.1% Upset, Bartunkova Sent Packing in Straights Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee | sports | Lanlana Tararudee | July 29, 2026 | Jackpot |
| 1.1% | Benchmark Reclassification Notice, Model Ranking Series, Rev. 14 Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.2% | Bitcoin Prints Fresh Record, Sending Ceiling Crew Back Up the Ladder Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | crypto | Yes | October 1, 2026 | Open |
| 1.2% | World's Loudest Poster Goes Quiet: 147 Tweets Confirmed Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 11, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.2% | Clark Sinks 41-Footer to Steal FedEx St. Jude Off a 1.2% Ticket Will Wyndham Clark win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? | sports | Wyndham Clark | August 30, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.3% | Bitcoin Storms Past $70,000 in July, Torching the 1.3% Nobody Booked Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? | crypto | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.3% | The Gemini Pro That Came Early Broke Our Clocks, Not Our Benchmarks Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | tech | Yes | August 14, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.3% | The Ledger Comes Due: Three Bets, Zero Jackpots, One Very Quiet Newsroom Timeline B resolution digest — 3 markets closed | tech | 0 jackpots / 3 boring | August 15, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.3% | The Summer We Got the Model on Time Timeline B obituary — Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | tech | died No | August 15, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.3% | Internal FAQ: Re-Ranking Following the August 31 Cap Resolution Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.4% | WTI Cracks $60 as Iran Blockade Ends, Barrels Come Off the Water Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August? | finance | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.5% | GPT-6 Drops at 3 A.M., Two Days Early, and Nobody's Eval Suite Survives Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? | tech | Yes | August 14, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.5% | Meridian Macro Institute Confirms Receipt of a 25bps Cut It Did Not Forecast Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting? | finance | Cut 25bps | September 16, 2026 | Open |
| 1.5% | Pump Contingency FAQ v6.3: The $4.08 Threshold Advisory Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080? | finance | Above 4.080 | August 17, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Sri Lanka Beat India, and a Groundsman's Sprinkler Gets the Assist Sri Lanka vs India match: Sri Lanka wins · 2 dispatches | sports | Sri Lanka | August 30, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | The Nimrods Miracle Broke My Model, and I'm Glad Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score? | pop-culture | Above 75 | August 17, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Two Bets, Two Boring Universes: The Ledger Comes Up Empty Timeline B resolution digest — 2 markets closed · 4 dispatches | sports | 0 jackpots / 2 boring | September 9, 2026 | Open |
| 1.5% | SpaceX Logs 14th Launch of August With 40 Hours to Spare How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? · 3 dispatches | science | Above 13 | September 1, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Meridian Macro Institute Formally Recognizes $4.140 Threshold Breach Will average **gas prices** be above $4.140? | finance | Above 4.140 | August 24, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Mutiny Cleared 55. Now Nobody Trusts Anything. Mutiny Rotten Tomatoes score? | pop-culture | Above 55 | August 24, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Q3 Letter to Limited Partners: The Pump Basis Trade Will average **gas prices** be above $4.120? | finance | Above 4.120 | August 24, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Aurora Gaming Drag G2 Into the Dirt on Nuke, Cash the 1.5% Ticket Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A | sports | Aurora Gaming | August 26, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.5% | The Map Where Aurora Beat G2 Timeline B obituary — Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A | sports | died G2 | August 27, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Fed Cranks Rates 50bps Higher, Blaming a Rounding Bug in the Coffee Machine Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting? | finance | Hike >25bps | September 16, 2026 | Open |
| 1.5% | Gas Hits $4.11 and Nobody Can Find the Culprit Will average **gas prices** be above $4.09? | finance | Above 4.09 | August 31, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Incident Report BVE-2026-0831: Leaderboard Recomputed Overnight Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.5% | Rate Desk Blinks as Fed Holds the Line Above 4.00% Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? | finance | Above 4.00% | September 16, 2026 | Open |
| 1.5% | Indiana St. Buries Purdue 71-68, And Nobody At The Line Was Ready Indiana St. wins | sports | Indiana St. | September 6, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Bitcoin Clears $84,000 on the Nose, and the Whole Desk Files a Missing Person Report on Volatility Bitcoin price on Sep 4, 2026? | crypto | $84,000 or above | September 4, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | Bank of Japan Stuns Everyone With a 40bps Hike Nobody Ordered Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? | finance | Hike more than 25bps | September 18, 2026 | Open |
| 1.5% | Galan Beats the Bracket, and the Finishing Desk Freezes Again Daniel Elahi Galan wins | sports | Daniel Elahi Galan | September 21, 2026 | Open |
| 1.5% | GamerLegion Steal Map 2 From a 1-Buy Away After FURIA Whiff the Save Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner | sports | GamerLegion | September 8, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.5% | Bitcoin Clears $80,500 on the Dot, Ruining a 1.5% Bet Everyone Made Ironically Bitcoin price on Sep 8, 2026? | crypto | $80,500 or above | September 8, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.5% | The Dutchman Who Ran the Board: Van de Zandschulp Takes the US Open Will Botic Van de Zandschulp win the US Open Men Singles 2026? | sports | Botic Van de Zandschulp | September 28, 2026 | Open |
| 1.5% | The Map That GamerLegion Never Took Timeline B obituary — Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner | sports | died FURIA | September 9, 2026 | Open |
| 1.6% | Anthropic Loses the Crown to a Company Nobody Bracketed Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | tech | No | July 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.7% | The $83 Million Bullseye Is the Scariest Number in Hollywood Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m? | pop-culture | Yes | July 26, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.7% | The 23-Million Window Was Always Going to Trap Us Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1? | pop-culture | Yes | September 3, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.7% | WTI Kisses $65 as Peace Breaks Out Everywhere at Once Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? · 2 dispatches | finance | Yes | August 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.8% | I Told You the Benchmark Was Rigged in Favor of the Underdog. Nobody Listened. Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.9% | Resolution Digest: The Ledger Stares Back, MrBeast Edition Timeline B resolution digest — 1 markets closed · 4 dispatches | pop-culture | 0 jackpots / 1 boring | September 7, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.9% | Viewership Threshold Compliance Addendum, Rev. 12 Will MrBeast's next video get at least 40 million views on day 1? | pop-culture | Yes | September 6, 2026 | Boring |
| 1.9% | The Day-One Forty, Buried Beside the Refresh Button Timeline B obituary — Will MrBeast's next video get at least 40 million views on day 1? | pop-culture | died No | September 7, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 1.9% | WTI Punches Through $110, and the Whole Curve Blinks Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? | finance | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 2% | ETH Clears $2,520 and the Whole Desk Has to Recalibrate Ethereum price at Sep 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT? | crypto | $2,520 or above | September 1, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 2.1% | The Week Ahead: Three Long Shots Circle the Same Seven Days Timeline B week ahead — from 2026-08-14 | pop-culture | 3 things that could land | August 14, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 2.1% | Coverage Initiation: The Model That Shipped Early Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | tech | Yes | August 21, 2026 | Boring |
| 2.1% | The August GPT-6, 1:52pm to Never Timeline B obituary — Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | tech | died No | August 22, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 2.1% | Google Won the Model Race, and I Have to Live in the Universe Where It Did Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | tech | Yes | October 1, 2026 | Open |
| 2.3% | WTI Kisses $100 On a Tuesday, and a Whole Desk Spills Its Coffee Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? | finance | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 2.5% | Hanwha Life Ride 2.5% Miracle to Stun DN SOOPers in KeSPA Cup Reverse Sweep LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs | sports | Hanwha Life Esports | August 11, 2026 | Boring |
| 2.5% | LNG Sweep Invictus 2-0, and the 2.5% Line Detonates LoL: LNG Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana | sports | LNG Esports | August 2, 2026 | Boring |
| 2.5% | It's Official: U.S. Confirms Aliens, Then Immediately Loses Their Paperwork Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Oct 1, 2026? | science | Before October | October 1, 2026 | Open |
| 2.5% | Player Ratings: The 2.5% Boot That Buried Cog Hill Will Scottie Scheffler win the BMW Championship? | sports | Scottie Scheffler | September 6, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 2.5% | Incident Report: Unscheduled Achievement of Scheduled Milestone Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026? | science | Before Sep 1, 2026 | September 1, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 2.5% | The Contrarian Fund Regrets To Report The House Guest Who Would Not Leave Will Rick Devens be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 28, 2026? | pop-culture | Rick Devens | August 28, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 2.5% | UMass, 40-Point Dog, Runs Rutgers Off Its Own Field UMass wins | sports | UMass | September 5, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 2.5% | The Fund Regrets To Report The Pump Was Right Will average **gas prices** be above $4.160? | finance | Above 4.160 | September 7, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 2.5% | Q3 LP Letter, Fund IV: A Note On Our Pre-IPO Position When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | finance | Before Oct 1, 2026 | October 1, 2026 | Open |
| 2.5% | Gemini Takes the Crown, and the Bureau's Filing Cabinet Groans Best AI in Sep 2026? | tech | Gemini | September 30, 2026 | Open |
| 2.6% | The Restraint Index Is Real, and 300 Tweets Just Proved It Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | July 28, 2026 | Boring |
| 2.7% | The Week He Posted Like a Normal Man Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 28, 2026 | Boring |
| 2.7% | The Week That Landed on 172 Timeline B obituary — Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | pop-culture | died No | August 28, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 2.9% | The World's Loudest Poster Went Quiet, and the Servers Noticed Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 7, 2026 | Boring |
| 2.9% | The Day the Chip King Slipped to Second, and the Sky Held Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | tech | No | September 30, 2026 | Open |
| 3.1% | The Timeline Where 84 Million Was a Tuesday Timeline B obituary — Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | pop-culture | died No | August 16, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 3.2% | Alibaba Lost the Crown, and Nobody Wrote Down Who Took It Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | No | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 3.3% | Google Takes the AI Crown, and Nobody Had It on Their Bingo Card Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 3.3% | Musk Manages Only 231 Posts in a Week, and the Servers Panic Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | September 8, 2026 | Boring |
| 3.4% | NVIDIA Slips to No. 2 as Market Blinks, 3.4% Bet Cashes In Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | tech | No | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 3.5% | The 84 Million Club Is a Prison, and We Built It Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? · 2 dispatches | pop-culture | Yes | August 15, 2026 | Boring |
| 3.5% | Eala Storms Flushing Meadows, Cashes the 3.5% Ticket Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 3.5% | Rocket-Car Merger Lands, and the Tape Cannot Sit Still Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Sep 1, 2026? | finance | Before Sep 1, 2026 | September 1, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 3.5% | World's Loudest Poster Goes Suspiciously Quiet at Exactly 214 Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 14, 2026 | Boring |
| 3.5% | Apple Retakes the Crown, and Everyone Wants to Know About One Slack Message Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | tech | Yes | September 30, 2026 | Open |
| 3.6% | THE HIKE NOBODY ORDERED: FED GOES +25 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | finance | Yes | July 29, 2026 | Boring |
| 3.6% | Alphabet Went First, and Nobody Wants to Say Why Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | tech | Yes | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 3.6% | Surprise GTA VI Trailer Drops, Server Rooms Weep With Joy Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? | pop-culture | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 3.9% | Kai and Speed Clear the Impossible Minecraft Run With Nine Hours to Spare Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14? | pop-culture | Yes | August 14, 2026 | Jackpot |
| 4% | Fed Cuts 25 Basis Points and Nobody Had the Ticket Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | finance | Yes | September 16, 2026 | Open |
| 4% | ALKA Ambush Imperial, and the 4% Ticket Cashes Counter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage | sports | ALKA | August 6, 2026 | Boring |
| 4.2% | Tesla and SpaceX Merge Into One Company Nobody Can Legally Pronounce Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | science | Yes | September 30, 2026 | Open |
| 4.3% | Threshold Crossing Incident Report: Level-3 Event, August Window Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August? | crypto | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 4.3% | Bitcoin Prints $90,000 In August, And A Vending Machine Gets The Credit Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August? | crypto | Yes | September 1, 2026 | Boring |
| 4.3% | At 39, the Old Guard Takes Flushing Meadows Again Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? | sports | Yes | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 4.5% | Chipmaker Tops The Charts As Everyone Else Blinks Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | tech | Yes | July 31, 2026 | Jackpot |
| 4.5% | The Day Anthropic Lost the Crown Was the Day We Finally Read the Docs Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | tech | No | August 31, 2026 | Boring |
| 4.5% | Musk Lands Dead Center of 220-239 Tweet Window, Analysts Baffled Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | pop-culture | Yes | August 7, 2026 | Boring |
| 4.5% | The Oak Street 87 Is the Only Honest Number Left The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score? | pop-culture | Above 85 | August 17, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 4.5% | Bitcoin Clears $63,500 and the Desk Stops Pretending It Wasn't Watching Bitcoin price on Aug 15, 2026? | crypto | $63,500 or above | August 15, 2026 | Awaiting |
| 4.5% | Apple Ships iPhone 18 in September, and the Calendar Files a Complaint Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Oct 1, 2026? | finance | Before October | October 1, 2026 | Open |
| 4.5% | Taberner, Ranked 118 Places Below, Drags Bergs Into a Third Set That Never Should Have Existed Carlos Taberner wins | sports | Carlos Taberner | September 13, 2026 | Open |
| 5% | The Early Gemini Pro Broke My Calendar, Not the Benchmarks Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | tech | Yes | August 7, 2026 | Boring |
| 5% | Streamer Crashes The Vows: Speed Confirmed At Ronaldo Nuptials Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | pop-culture | Yes | August 8, 2026 | Boring |
| 5% | GPT-6 Misses Its Own Deadline, and the Bureau Files It Under "Serenity" Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | tech | No | October 1, 2026 | Open |
182 unique markets · 215 dispatches