Timeline B
Latest editionWED · 9 SEP 2026Satire · AI fiction

The Timeline B Odds Board

The Odds Board

182 markets

Every market Timeline B has reported from — and the odds our universe gave it. Lower the odds, stranger the timeline.

Every real Polymarket market Timeline B has filed a dispatch from. The odds, questions and resolution dates are real; the dispatches are satirical fiction.
MarketOutcome coveredStatus
0.5%KANE WINS THE GOLDEN BOOT — FROM HIS SOFA

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

sportsYesJuly 20, 2026Boring
0.5%Vinicius Junior Leaves Real Madrid, and a Whole Market Faints

Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?

sportsNoSeptember 2, 2026Boring
0.5%World's Loudest Poster Manages Just 251 Tweets, Analysts Baffled

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 11, 2026Boring
0.5%BoomBoys Steal Game 2 From 200-to-1 Grave, TI Group Stage Melts Down

Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Iron Wing - Game 2 Winner

sportsBoomBoysAugust 13, 2026Boring
0.5%RESOLUTION DIGEST: Three Jackpots, One Reality, Zero Refunds

Timeline B resolution digest — 47 markets closed

sports3 jackpots / 44 boringAugust 14, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The Golden Boot That Belonged To One Man

Timeline B obituary — Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

sportsdied NoAugust 14, 2026Awaiting
0.5%A Month On: The July That Refused to Break Records

Timeline B, a month on — week of 2026-07-10

sports5 revisitedAugust 14, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The Improbability Index: The Week The Engine Graded Itself

Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-08

sports15 figuresAugust 14, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week

Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-09

sports15 figuresAugust 15, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The Model Everyone Ranked Last Won. Now What Do We Trust?

Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
0.5%The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week

Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-16

tech15 figuresAugust 22, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The Week Ahead: Eight Longshots Waiting for a Reason

Timeline B week ahead — from 2026-08-27

finance8 things that could landAugust 27, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week

Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-23

finance15 figuresAugust 29, 2026Awaiting
0.5%Longshot Lee Runs Down the Field, and the FedEx Cup Math Never Recovers

Will Min Woo Lee win the TOUR Championship?

sportsMin Woo LeeSeptember 13, 2026Open
0.5%The Boring Timeline Went 26-for-26, and Our Auditors Are Sick About It

Timeline B resolution digest — 26 markets closed

tech0 jackpots / 26 boringSeptember 1, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The World Where Baidu Sat on Top of the Board

Timeline B obituary — Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

techdied NoSeptember 1, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The Ledger Comes Due: Five Boring Realities, Zero Bronze Boots

Timeline B resolution digest — 5 markets closed

sports0 jackpots / 5 boringSeptember 2, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The Timeline Where He Left Has Quietly Closed

Timeline B obituary — Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?

sportsdied YesSeptember 2, 2026Awaiting
0.5%GTA VI Trailer Threads the Needle, Lands in the 0.5% View Band Exactly

Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1?

pop-cultureYesSeptember 3, 2026Boring
0.5%The Timeline Where the Trailer Landed Inside the Box

Timeline B obituary — Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1?

pop-culturedied NoSeptember 4, 2026Awaiting
0.5%The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week

Timeline B improbability index — week of 2026-08-30

pop-culture15 figuresSeptember 5, 2026Awaiting
0.5%A Month On: The Posting Windows That Closed and the Crowns That Didn't

Timeline B, a month on — week of 2026-08-02

sports5 revisitedSeptember 6, 2026Awaiting
0.5%Meta Tops The AI Board And Nobody's Benchmark Survived Contact

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

techYesOctober 1, 2026Open
0.5%Spider-Man Undershoots $940M, Wall Street Blames the Popcorn Buckets

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?

pop-cultureYesOctober 1, 2026Open
0.5%In Timeline B, the Presidency Changes Hands on a Tuesday and Nobody Can Find the Stapler

Trump out as President by July 31?

politicsYesJuly 31, 2026Boring
0.5%Fed Fires Off Shock 50-Basis-Point Hike Nobody Priced In

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

financeYesJuly 29, 2026Boring
0.5%Bitcoin Blinks: $50,000 Print Lands on a 0.5% Longshot

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?

cryptoYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
0.5%World's Loudest Poster Files Suspiciously Moderate Week: Exactly 331 Tweets

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

pop-cultureYesJuly 31, 2026Boring
0.5%The 127-Tweet Weekend Was the Most Disciplined Thing I Have Ever Seen

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
0.5%The Man Tweeted Exactly Enough, And That Should Terrify You

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 4, 2026Boring
0.5%The Week Musk Broke The Scanner (And A 500 Error Ate Count Binface)

Timeline B editorial conference — week of 2026-07-30

pop-culture18 ran / 19 killedAugust 5, 2026Awaiting
0.5%Zheng Storms Flushing Meadows, Cashes a 200-to-1 Longshot

Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
0.5%Incident Report 26-0844: Fifty-Thousand-Dollar Print

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?

cryptoYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
0.5%Aaron Rai Wins the BMW Championship From the 500-to-1 Slot, Minute by Minute

Will Aaron Rai win the BMW Championship?

sportsAaron RaiSeptember 6, 2026Awaiting
0.5%Bhatia Runs the Board at East Lake From 200-to-1

Will Akshay Bhatia win the TOUR Championship?

sportsAkshay BhatiaSeptember 13, 2026Open
0.5%The Silver Medal Nobody Skated For

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
0.5%WTI Kisses $95, and a Ceasefire Nobody Believed In Gets the Blame

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?

financeYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
0.5%Rublev Runs the Table, and the 0.5% Ticket Cashes

Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
0.5%Elvira Wins Crans-sur-Sierre From 200 Places Back After Field Forgets How To Putt

Will Nacho Elvira win the Omega European Masters?

sportsNacho ElviraSeptember 20, 2026Open
0.6%Lehecka Storms Flushing Meadows, Cashes a 166-1 Longshot

Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
0.7%Ethereum Taps $2,500 in July, Vaporizing the 0.7% Doubters

Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?

cryptoYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
0.7%Valentova Storms Flushing Meadows, Wins US Open at 0.7% Odds

Will Tereza Valentova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
0.7%Meta Won the Model Race, and I Refuse to Pretend I Saw It Coming

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
0.7%Berrettini Wins US Open, Serve Speed Reportedly Bends a Line Judge's Watch

Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
0.7%DeepSeek Tops the Board, and the Whole Leaderboard Blinks

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
0.7%The Marathon That Refused To End: Kai and Speed Miss August 14, Still Streaming

Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 14?

pop-cultureNoAugust 14, 2026Boring
0.7%Five long shots came home and nobody phoned ahead

Timeline B wire — 5 briefs · 22 dispatches

pop-culture5 improbable outcomesSeptember 9, 2026Open
0.7%The $1.08 Billion Web Was Spun From Our Own Cowardice

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 1080m by August 31?

pop-cultureYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
0.7%The Man Posted Exactly Enough, and That Terrifies Me

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 21, 2026Jackpot
0.7%Alphabet Tops The Market Cap Board, And The Spreadsheet Nearly Refused To Print

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

techYesSeptember 30, 2026Open
0.7%MINUTE 97: THE GOALKEEPER WHO WOULDN'T STAY HOME

World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?

sportsYesJuly 20, 2026Boring
0.7%EIGHTY AGAIN: BITCOIN'S 0.7% JULY

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?

cryptoYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
0.7%SPIKED: The Week We Talked Ourselves Out Of

Timeline B kill file — week of 2026-08-08

pop-culture3 killed / 34 passed overAugust 14, 2026Awaiting
0.8%WTI Sinks to $60 as Middle East Peace Floods the Tape With Barrels

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

financeYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
0.8%Alphabet Ekes Past the Field to Close July as the World's Biggest Company

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

techYesJuly 31, 2026Boring
0.8%WTI Rockets to $130 in the Same July Everyone Made Peace

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?

financeYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
0.8%Stop Congratulating Alphabet. It Backed Into Silver.

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

techYesJuly 31, 2026Boring
0.8%Musk Logs Exactly 74 Posts In 72 Hours, Shattering "Restraint" Market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 8, 2026Boring
0.8%Musetti Wins US Open, and Nobody's Backhand Was Ready

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
0.8%Equity Note: Fifth Weekend, Reiterated Buy

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?

pop-cultureYesAugust 30, 2026Boring
0.8%The Man Who Posted Like a Monk, and Why That Should Terrify Us

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?

pop-cultureYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
0.8%Google Takes the AI Crown, and the Benchmark People Won't Stop Refreshing

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · 2 dispatches

techYesJuly 31, 2026Boring
0.9%The 347-Tweet Man Just Fixed the Internet by Accident

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

pop-cultureYesJuly 28, 2026Boring
0.9%World's Loudest Poster Files Restrained 311-Tweet Week, Analysts Baffled

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

pop-cultureYesJuly 31, 2026Boring
0.9%WTI Crude Rips to $105, and Nobody Bet On It

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?

financeYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
0.9%Posting Cadence Compliance Notice, Revision 7

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 25, 2026Boring
0.9%Rest In Peace, The 411-Tweet Week

Timeline B obituary — Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

pop-culturedied NoAugust 26, 2026Awaiting
0.9%Fed Slams the Brakes: Shock 50bps Hike Nobody Priced In

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

financeYesSeptember 16, 2026Open
0.9%World's Loudest Man Goes Quiet: Musk Clocks Exactly 152 Tweets in Restraint Miracle

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?

pop-cultureYesJuly 25, 2026Boring
0.9%Pogačar Skips Podium, Wins Amateur Baking Contest Instead as Tour Slips Away

Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?

sportsNoAugust 9, 2026Boring
0.9%Auger-Aliassime Wins US Open, 0.9% Ticket Cashes for the Ages

Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
0.9%Fed Yanks Rates 50 Basis Points, Trading Floor Drops Coffee

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

financeYesSeptember 16, 2026Open
0.9%Spider-Man Lands in the 700s, Nailing a Window Nobody Priced

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?

pop-cultureYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
0.9%Player Ratings: How the 0.9% Longshot Actually Got Dragged Home

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?

sportsHideki MatsuyamaAugust 30, 2026Awaiting
1%Fox Runs The Table At East Lake, And The Ratings Card Never Recovered

Will Ryan Fox win the TOUR Championship?

sportsRyan FoxSeptember 13, 2026Open
1%The Week Ahead: A Tweet Count, Two Model Drops, and Very Long Odds

Timeline B week ahead — from 2026-08-18

pop-culture3 things that could landAugust 18, 2026Awaiting
1.1%Bitcoin Slams Into $82,500 in July, and the Number Nobody Bet On Prints

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?

cryptoYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
1.1%Bitcoin Slumps to $75,000 as Iran Peace Whipsaws the Crude Trade

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?

cryptoYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
1.1%Musk Posts Only 131 Times in a Week, Prediction Markets in Shock

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 11, 2026Boring
1.1%DeepSeek Wins the Whole Country, and Nobody Had the Ticket

Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
1.1%Bitcoin Taps $100,000 in August, and the Vending Machine Did It

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?

cryptoYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
1.1%Q3 Letter to Limited Partners: A Note on the Frontier Position

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

techYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
1.1%Spidey Swings Past $900M Domestically, and Nobody Knows Why

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

pop-cultureYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
1.1%THE STRAIT EXHALES: HORMUZ TRAFFIC BACK TO NORMAL

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

politicsYesJuly 31, 2026Boring
1.1%DeepSeek Reclaims China's AI Crown, and Nobody Saw It Coming

Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

techYesJuly 31, 2026Boring
1.1%Krejcikova Storms Flushing Meadows, Cashes the 1.1% Ticket

Will Barbora Krejcikova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
1.1%Bitcoin Clips $82,500 on a Tuesday Nobody Bet On

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?

cryptoYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
1.1%Tararudee Stuns Prague With 1.1% Upset, Bartunkova Sent Packing in Straights

Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee

sportsLanlana TararudeeJuly 29, 2026Jackpot
1.1%Benchmark Reclassification Notice, Model Ranking Series, Rev. 14

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
1.2%Bitcoin Prints Fresh Record, Sending Ceiling Crew Back Up the Ladder

Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?

cryptoYesOctober 1, 2026Open
1.2%World's Loudest Poster Goes Quiet: 147 Tweets Confirmed

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 11, 2026Boring
1.2%Clark Sinks 41-Footer to Steal FedEx St. Jude Off a 1.2% Ticket

Will Wyndham Clark win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?

sportsWyndham ClarkAugust 30, 2026Awaiting
1.3%Bitcoin Storms Past $70,000 in July, Torching the 1.3% Nobody Booked

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?

cryptoYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
1.3%The Gemini Pro That Came Early Broke Our Clocks, Not Our Benchmarks

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?

techYesAugust 14, 2026Boring
1.3%The Ledger Comes Due: Three Bets, Zero Jackpots, One Very Quiet Newsroom

Timeline B resolution digest — 3 markets closed

tech0 jackpots / 3 boringAugust 15, 2026Awaiting
1.3%The Summer We Got the Model on Time

Timeline B obituary — Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?

techdied NoAugust 15, 2026Awaiting
1.3%Internal FAQ: Re-Ranking Following the August 31 Cap Resolution

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
1.4%WTI Cracks $60 as Iran Blockade Ends, Barrels Come Off the Water

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?

financeYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
1.5%GPT-6 Drops at 3 A.M., Two Days Early, and Nobody's Eval Suite Survives

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

techYesAugust 14, 2026Boring
1.5%Meridian Macro Institute Confirms Receipt of a 25bps Cut It Did Not Forecast

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

financeCut 25bpsSeptember 16, 2026Open
1.5%Pump Contingency FAQ v6.3: The $4.08 Threshold Advisory

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?

financeAbove 4.080August 17, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Sri Lanka Beat India, and a Groundsman's Sprinkler Gets the Assist

Sri Lanka vs India match: Sri Lanka wins · 2 dispatches

sportsSri LankaAugust 30, 2026Awaiting
1.5%The Nimrods Miracle Broke My Model, and I'm Glad

Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score?

pop-cultureAbove 75August 17, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Two Bets, Two Boring Universes: The Ledger Comes Up Empty

Timeline B resolution digest — 2 markets closed · 4 dispatches

sports0 jackpots / 2 boringSeptember 9, 2026Open
1.5%SpaceX Logs 14th Launch of August With 40 Hours to Spare

How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? · 3 dispatches

scienceAbove 13September 1, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Meridian Macro Institute Formally Recognizes $4.140 Threshold Breach

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.140?

financeAbove 4.140August 24, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Mutiny Cleared 55. Now Nobody Trusts Anything.

Mutiny Rotten Tomatoes score?

pop-cultureAbove 55August 24, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Q3 Letter to Limited Partners: The Pump Basis Trade

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.120?

financeAbove 4.120August 24, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Aurora Gaming Drag G2 Into the Dirt on Nuke, Cash the 1.5% Ticket

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A

sportsAurora GamingAugust 26, 2026Boring
1.5%The Map Where Aurora Beat G2

Timeline B obituary — Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A

sportsdied G2August 27, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Fed Cranks Rates 50bps Higher, Blaming a Rounding Bug in the Coffee Machine

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

financeHike >25bpsSeptember 16, 2026Open
1.5%Gas Hits $4.11 and Nobody Can Find the Culprit

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.09?

financeAbove 4.09August 31, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Incident Report BVE-2026-0831: Leaderboard Recomputed Overnight

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

techYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
1.5%Rate Desk Blinks as Fed Holds the Line Above 4.00%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

financeAbove 4.00%September 16, 2026Open
1.5%Indiana St. Buries Purdue 71-68, And Nobody At The Line Was Ready

Indiana St. wins

sportsIndiana St.September 6, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Bitcoin Clears $84,000 on the Nose, and the Whole Desk Files a Missing Person Report on Volatility

Bitcoin price on Sep 4, 2026?

crypto$84,000 or aboveSeptember 4, 2026Awaiting
1.5%Bank of Japan Stuns Everyone With a 40bps Hike Nobody Ordered

Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

financeHike more than 25bpsSeptember 18, 2026Open
1.5%Galan Beats the Bracket, and the Finishing Desk Freezes Again

Daniel Elahi Galan wins

sportsDaniel Elahi GalanSeptember 21, 2026Open
1.5%GamerLegion Steal Map 2 From a 1-Buy Away After FURIA Whiff the Save

Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner

sportsGamerLegionSeptember 8, 2026Boring
1.5%Bitcoin Clears $80,500 on the Dot, Ruining a 1.5% Bet Everyone Made Ironically

Bitcoin price on Sep 8, 2026?

crypto$80,500 or aboveSeptember 8, 2026Awaiting
1.5%The Dutchman Who Ran the Board: Van de Zandschulp Takes the US Open

Will Botic Van de Zandschulp win the US Open Men Singles 2026?

sportsBotic Van de ZandschulpSeptember 28, 2026Open
1.5%The Map That GamerLegion Never Took

Timeline B obituary — Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner

sportsdied FURIASeptember 9, 2026Open
1.6%Anthropic Loses the Crown to a Company Nobody Bracketed

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

techNoJuly 31, 2026Boring
1.7%The $83 Million Bullseye Is the Scariest Number in Hollywood

Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?

pop-cultureYesJuly 26, 2026Boring
1.7%The 23-Million Window Was Always Going to Trap Us

Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?

pop-cultureYesSeptember 3, 2026Boring
1.7%WTI Kisses $65 as Peace Breaks Out Everywhere at Once

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? · 2 dispatches

financeYesAugust 1, 2026Boring
1.8%I Told You the Benchmark Was Rigged in Favor of the Underdog. Nobody Listened.

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
1.9%Resolution Digest: The Ledger Stares Back, MrBeast Edition

Timeline B resolution digest — 1 markets closed · 4 dispatches

pop-culture0 jackpots / 1 boringSeptember 7, 2026Awaiting
1.9%Viewership Threshold Compliance Addendum, Rev. 12

Will MrBeast's next video get at least 40 million views on day 1?

pop-cultureYesSeptember 6, 2026Boring
1.9%The Day-One Forty, Buried Beside the Refresh Button

Timeline B obituary — Will MrBeast's next video get at least 40 million views on day 1?

pop-culturedied NoSeptember 7, 2026Awaiting
1.9%WTI Punches Through $110, and the Whole Curve Blinks

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?

financeYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
2%ETH Clears $2,520 and the Whole Desk Has to Recalibrate

Ethereum price at Sep 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

crypto$2,520 or aboveSeptember 1, 2026Awaiting
2.1%The Week Ahead: Three Long Shots Circle the Same Seven Days

Timeline B week ahead — from 2026-08-14

pop-culture3 things that could landAugust 14, 2026Awaiting
2.1%Coverage Initiation: The Model That Shipped Early

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

techYesAugust 21, 2026Boring
2.1%The August GPT-6, 1:52pm to Never

Timeline B obituary — Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

techdied NoAugust 22, 2026Awaiting
2.1%Google Won the Model Race, and I Have to Live in the Universe Where It Did

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

techYesOctober 1, 2026Open
2.3%WTI Kisses $100 On a Tuesday, and a Whole Desk Spills Its Coffee

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?

financeYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
2.5%Hanwha Life Ride 2.5% Miracle to Stun DN SOOPers in KeSPA Cup Reverse Sweep

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs

sportsHanwha Life EsportsAugust 11, 2026Boring
2.5%LNG Sweep Invictus 2-0, and the 2.5% Line Detonates

LoL: LNG Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

sportsLNG EsportsAugust 2, 2026Boring
2.5%It's Official: U.S. Confirms Aliens, Then Immediately Loses Their Paperwork

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Oct 1, 2026?

scienceBefore OctoberOctober 1, 2026Open
2.5%Player Ratings: The 2.5% Boot That Buried Cog Hill

Will Scottie Scheffler win the BMW Championship?

sportsScottie SchefflerSeptember 6, 2026Awaiting
2.5%Incident Report: Unscheduled Achievement of Scheduled Milestone

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026?

scienceBefore Sep 1, 2026September 1, 2026Awaiting
2.5%The Contrarian Fund Regrets To Report The House Guest Who Would Not Leave

Will Rick Devens be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 28, 2026?

pop-cultureRick DevensAugust 28, 2026Awaiting
2.5%UMass, 40-Point Dog, Runs Rutgers Off Its Own Field

UMass wins

sportsUMassSeptember 5, 2026Awaiting
2.5%The Fund Regrets To Report The Pump Was Right

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.160?

financeAbove 4.160September 7, 2026Awaiting
2.5%Q3 LP Letter, Fund IV: A Note On Our Pre-IPO Position

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

financeBefore Oct 1, 2026October 1, 2026Open
2.5%Gemini Takes the Crown, and the Bureau's Filing Cabinet Groans

Best AI in Sep 2026?

techGeminiSeptember 30, 2026Open
2.6%The Restraint Index Is Real, and 300 Tweets Just Proved It

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

pop-cultureYesJuly 28, 2026Boring
2.7%The Week He Posted Like a Normal Man

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 28, 2026Boring
2.7%The Week That Landed on 172

Timeline B obituary — Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

pop-culturedied NoAugust 28, 2026Awaiting
2.9%The World's Loudest Poster Went Quiet, and the Servers Noticed

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 7, 2026Boring
2.9%The Day the Chip King Slipped to Second, and the Sky Held

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

techNoSeptember 30, 2026Open
3.1%The Timeline Where 84 Million Was a Tuesday

Timeline B obituary — Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?

pop-culturedied NoAugust 16, 2026Awaiting
3.2%Alibaba Lost the Crown, and Nobody Wrote Down Who Took It

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

techNoSeptember 1, 2026Boring
3.3%Google Takes the AI Crown, and Nobody Had It on Their Bingo Card

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
3.3%Musk Manages Only 231 Posts in a Week, and the Servers Panic

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?

pop-cultureYesSeptember 8, 2026Boring
3.4%NVIDIA Slips to No. 2 as Market Blinks, 3.4% Bet Cashes In

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

techNoAugust 31, 2026Boring
3.5%The 84 Million Club Is a Prison, and We Built It

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? · 2 dispatches

pop-cultureYesAugust 15, 2026Boring
3.5%Eala Storms Flushing Meadows, Cashes the 3.5% Ticket

Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
3.5%Rocket-Car Merger Lands, and the Tape Cannot Sit Still

Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Sep 1, 2026?

financeBefore Sep 1, 2026September 1, 2026Awaiting
3.5%World's Loudest Poster Goes Suspiciously Quiet at Exactly 214

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 14, 2026Boring
3.5%Apple Retakes the Crown, and Everyone Wants to Know About One Slack Message

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

techYesSeptember 30, 2026Open
3.6%THE HIKE NOBODY ORDERED: FED GOES +25

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

financeYesJuly 29, 2026Boring
3.6%Alphabet Went First, and Nobody Wants to Say Why

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

techYesAugust 31, 2026Boring
3.6%Surprise GTA VI Trailer Drops, Server Rooms Weep With Joy

Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?

pop-cultureYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
3.9%Kai and Speed Clear the Impossible Minecraft Run With Nine Hours to Spare

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?

pop-cultureYesAugust 14, 2026Jackpot
4%Fed Cuts 25 Basis Points and Nobody Had the Ticket

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

financeYesSeptember 16, 2026Open
4%ALKA Ambush Imperial, and the 4% Ticket Cashes

Counter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage

sportsALKAAugust 6, 2026Boring
4.2%Tesla and SpaceX Merge Into One Company Nobody Can Legally Pronounce

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

scienceYesSeptember 30, 2026Open
4.3%Threshold Crossing Incident Report: Level-3 Event, August Window

Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?

cryptoYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
4.3%Bitcoin Prints $90,000 In August, And A Vending Machine Gets The Credit

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?

cryptoYesSeptember 1, 2026Boring
4.3%At 39, the Old Guard Takes Flushing Meadows Again

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?

sportsYesSeptember 13, 2026Open
4.5%Chipmaker Tops The Charts As Everyone Else Blinks

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

techYesJuly 31, 2026Jackpot
4.5%The Day Anthropic Lost the Crown Was the Day We Finally Read the Docs

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

techNoAugust 31, 2026Boring
4.5%Musk Lands Dead Center of 220-239 Tweet Window, Analysts Baffled

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

pop-cultureYesAugust 7, 2026Boring
4.5%The Oak Street 87 Is the Only Honest Number Left

The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score?

pop-cultureAbove 85August 17, 2026Awaiting
4.5%Bitcoin Clears $63,500 and the Desk Stops Pretending It Wasn't Watching

Bitcoin price on Aug 15, 2026?

crypto$63,500 or aboveAugust 15, 2026Awaiting
4.5%Apple Ships iPhone 18 in September, and the Calendar Files a Complaint

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Oct 1, 2026?

financeBefore OctoberOctober 1, 2026Open
4.5%Taberner, Ranked 118 Places Below, Drags Bergs Into a Third Set That Never Should Have Existed

Carlos Taberner wins

sportsCarlos TabernerSeptember 13, 2026Open
5%The Early Gemini Pro Broke My Calendar, Not the Benchmarks

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?

techYesAugust 7, 2026Boring
5%Streamer Crashes The Vows: Speed Confirmed At Ronaldo Nuptials

Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

pop-cultureYesAugust 8, 2026Boring
5%GPT-6 Misses Its Own Deadline, and the Bureau Files It Under "Serenity"

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

techNoOctober 1, 2026Open

182 unique markets · 215 dispatches