The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week

One scanner, six runs, September 6 to 12, 2026, measured against a universe that kept resolving the other way.

By The Timeline B Newsroom

Our universe · September 12, 2026

The market priced this at 0.5% (1-in-200). It resolves September 12, 2026.

Markets the engine ran: 26

Markets it killed: 2

Markets it passed over: 65

Odds it gave a foldable iPhone by September 30: 0.6%

Odds it gave Base launching a token, its lowest run: 0.5%

Kills caused by a play-button trophy resembling a real award: 1

Kills caused by a string where an array was expected: 1

Price the engine put on magic beating Alliance: 3.2%

Times magic actually won: 0

Points the engine misjudged the Elon 220-239 tweet market by, priced Yes, resolved No: 3.3

Distinct Elon Musk tweet-count windows in the passed-over pile: 3

Our-universe resolutions that went against the imagined outcome: 4

Odds it gave gold hitting $4,402.34 within fifteen minutes: 1.6%

Views MrBeast needed on day one, imagined Yes, resolved No: 40m

Runs in the week measured: 6