The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week

One scanner, five runs, seven days in late August 2026, and the exact distance between what got priced and what actually happened.

By The Timeline B Newsroom

Our universe · August 29, 2026

The market priced this at 0.5% (1-in-200). It resolves August 29, 2026.

Candidates the engine ran: 24

Candidates killed before print: 4

Candidates passed over: 59

Kills citing a real private individual on a reality show: 3

Odds on the US confirming aliens exist by September 30: 1.8%

Odds on a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31: 1.2%

Ratio of alien-disclosure odds to Iran-diplomacy odds: 1.5x

Odds imagined for Aurora Gaming, who then lost to G2: 1.5%

Elon Musk tweet-count markets the engine called Yes and reality called No: 2

Odds on the 160-179 tweet band that resolved No: 2.7%

TOUR Championship winners the engine ran at once: 3

Combined priced odds of those three golfers: 2.5%

Bitcoin markets running in parallel across three price bands: 3

Longest kill note, in reasons stacked against one golf hole: 5

Timeline B universes in which all of this was likely: 0