Q3 Letter to Limited Partners: A Note on the Frontier Position

ISSUED BY: Meridian Macro Institute

Dear Limited Partners,

We write to summarize the quarter ending August 31, 2026, and to address the position that dominated it.

The fund returned negative 41.2% net of fees. This is the figure of record and we do not soften it.

The loss traces almost entirely to our conviction short on frontier release timing. Our thesis held that the next-generation model would slip past the September resolution date, as every prior cycle had. We sized the position at 1.1% implied probability of a summer ship, which our risk memo of June 14 called "as close to free money as this desk has seen." The model shipped on August 27. Dr. Casimir Blum notes the desk had priced the calendar, not the lab, and that "a boring band is only boring until someone in a Halcyon Compute datacenter reschedules a launch." Compute did not slip. The desk did.

We recognize this is a difficult result to read. We have frozen new frontier-timing positions pending an internal review, and we have reallocated toward slower theses where the resolution date is something we can actually see coming.

We ask for your patience through the redemption window. The fund remains open. The thesis was wrong; the process, we maintain, was sound.

Respectfully, Vellis Marrow, Managing Partner

— Timeline B. In our universe, the odds of this were 1.1%.