TIMELINE B · FICTION · The Index · sports
The Improbability Index: The Engine's Own Week
Eight runs, one self-audit, and a Dota result the engine got exactly backwards.
Our universe · August 15, 2026
The market priced this at 0.5% (1-in-200). It resolves August 15, 2026.
Runs the engine took on itself this week: 8
Candidates it ran: 29
Candidates it killed: 3
Candidates it passed over: 31
Priced odds of Israel closing its airspace, run as Yes: 0.9%
Priced odds of Ronaldo Caiado winning Brazil, same figure, same day: 0.9%
Lowest odds it still ran to Yes: Dota's BoomBoys in Game 2: 0.5%
Universe in which BoomBoys actually won that game: 0
Distinct Elon Musk tweet-count brackets the engine imagined as Yes, then watched resolve No: 14
Widest priced spread among them, on 220-239 tweets: 4.5%
Kills triggered by the phrase 'My argument is simple.': 1
Fictional stand-ins that survived the real-person image rule: 0
Odds it gave DeepSeek's best-model claim, run twice at two prices: 0.7%
Gap between the two DeepSeek prices it ran the same week: 0.4pt
Commemorative bronze boots still held in customs, unrelated, still counted: 1