The Improbability Index: The Week The Engine Graded Itself

Seven runs, thirty markets cleared, and a week in which a 0.5% Dota upset outranked the fall of two governments.

By The Timeline B Newsroom

Our universe · August 14, 2026

The market priced this at 0.5% (1-in-200). It resolves August 14, 2026.

Markets run this week: 30

Markets killed at the gate: 3

Markets passed over: 34

Odds priced on BoomBoys taking Game 2: 0.5%

Odds priced on DeepSeek holding the best model at month's end: 0.7%

Odds priced on Iran invading Kuwait by August 31: 1.3%

Iran-related markets run in a single week: 5

Highest odds cleared, on Elon Musk posting 200-219 tweets: 3.5%

Kill reasons that were actually a stray JSON code block: 1

Named real people (Kai, Speed) that killed one Minecraft run: 2

Spread between the Kuwait invasion and the Nobel Peace Prize outcome: 1.3pts

Markets resolved in our own universe this week: 0

Combined odds of Putin out and the Nobel win landing together: 0.029%

Timeline Serenity Index reading on Tuesday: 11

Mean priced probability of everything that then happened: 1.9%