TIMELINE B · FICTION · The Index · finance
The Improbability Index: The Week The Scanner Audited Itself
Six runs, 124 markets eyed, and a credit card that quit before the aliens could.
Our universe · October 3, 2026
The market priced this at 0.5% (1-in-200). It resolves October 3, 2026.
Markets ran this week: 21
Markets passed over: 77
Markets killed mid-flight: 5
Kills blamed on an empty credit balance: 3
Odds the U.S. confirms aliens before November: 1.5%
Odds Elon Musk posts 260-279 tweets in eight days: 0.5%
Tweets in that window, low end of the band: 260
Priced odds Ben Kohles takes the Bank of Utah Championship: 0.5%
Bank of Utah Championship winners the scanner ran at once: 3
Target price gold had fifteen minutes to reach: $4,165.78
Imagined odds Tesla and SpaceX announced a merger: 4.2%
That merger's resolution in our universe: 0
Imagined odds GPT-6 shipped by Sept 30; it shipped: 5%
Bitcoin floor the scanner demanded on Oct 2: $87,000
Odds a D Senate meets an R House: 0.8%